The NEPSE stock market saw only four days of trading this week due to the public holiday for Gaijatra on Sunday. Last week had five trading days. Out of the four days this week, the market declined for three days and rose for just one.
The market closed at 2,788.36 points this week, down from 2,850.37 points last week. This means the market fell by 62.01 points this week, compared to a 72.26-point drop in the previous week.
Trading volume
Total shares worth 30.75 billion NPR were traded this week, down from 49.04 billion NPR last week. Both market index and trading volume fell this week.
Market capitalization dropped to 46.56 kharba NPR from 47.57 kharba NPR last week, reducing investors’ wealth by about 1.01 kharba NPR.
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci retracement
Fibonacci retracement is a tool used to estimate how far a rising or falling market could move and where it might find support or resistance. Key levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
This week, the market broke the 0.5% support level at 2,812 points and may now find support around the 0.618 level at 2,760 points. If the market continues to correct next week, strong support could be expected near this level.
Moving averages
Looking at moving averages, the market is approaching the 50-day moving average, which is also around 2,760 points. This suggests that even if there is a slight correction next week, the market could bounce back from the support zone. However, trading volume remains below average.
Bollinger bands, MACD, and RSI
The market, after previously falling from the upper Bollinger Band, is now near the lower band. MACD shows a bearish crossover, though the histogram is starting to weaken. RSI stands at 43, and the Money Flow Index has reached the oversold level of 15.
Pivot Points
Using pivot point analysis, future price movements are estimated from maximum, minimum, and closing prices:
Resistance Levels
- R3: 3,004
- R2: 2,964
- R1: 2,907
Pivot Point: 2,867
Support Levels
- S1: 2,810
- S2: 2,770
- S3: 2,713
NEPSE has fallen for three consecutive weeks. Trading volume is also declining. Technical analysis shows the market is near a strong support zone. Fibonacci retracement, moving averages, and momentum indicators suggest that if the market continues to correct next week, it could rebound from the support zone. Sector-wise, most groups showed red, except for a few.
