After hovering around the 3000-point mark earlier this year, Nepal stock market has now slipped and closed nearly 28 points lower today. At one point during the day, the NEPSE index touched 2875 before settling down by market close.
Current technical picture
Today’s candlestick shows a bearish pattern, suggesting sellers still have control. Looking at the Bollinger Bands, the market recently fell below the middle band and faced resistance there again today. MACD continues to show a valid bearish crossover, and the histogram bars are negative and extending. RSI is at 47, a neutral zone, while MFI stands at 40 which means if the downtrend continues, these indicators could drop to oversold levels (below 30).
Using Fibonacci retracement, the index has already broken the 0.38 support level. The next strong support is seen at the 0.5 level, around 2808 points. If that fails to hold, the 0.61 level around 2760 points is expected to be the next key support.
Elliott Wave analysis also aligns with this view, suggesting the market could find a strong base between 2750 and 2760 points before any potential rebound.
Likely short-term movement
With different technical indicators pointing in the same direction, the market could remain sideways for some time before making its next big move.
Disclaimer: Stock market investment is risky. This is an analysis, not a trading recommendation.
