The NEPSE index continued its decline for the fourth straight week. This week, the market traded for five days, compared to four days last week. Out of these five days, the market fell on three days and rose on two. The index closed at 2,758 points, down 30.36 points from last week’s 2,788.36.
Total weekly turnover reached NPR 2.977 billion, slightly lower than last week’s NPR 3.075 billion. Market capitalization also fell from NPR 4.656 trillion to NPR 4.608 trillion, eroding investors’ wealth by roughly NPR 4.8 billion.
Technical Analysis
Price Action: The market shows a lower low and lower high pattern, indicating a bearish trend since the 3,000-point level. However, bearish candles are becoming smaller, and trading volume is drying up, suggesting a potential pause or stabilization soon.
Ichimoku Analysis: The market remains in a bearish phase as the conversion line crosses the base line from above. Yet, the price is above the cloud, suggesting the current correction may be short-term.
Pivot Points:
- Resistance 3: 2,939
- Resistance 2: 2,907
- Resistance 1: 2,847
- Pivot Point: 2,815
- Support 1: 2,750
- Support 2: 2,756
- Support 3: 2,665
Conclusion: NEPSE has been declining for four consecutive weeks, with decreasing turnover and smaller weekly candlesticks, indicating that the market may be approaching a bottom. Fibonacci analysis shows the market near 0.61 support, and momentum indicators like the Money Flow Index suggest oversold conditions. While the market is showing early signs of stabilization, technical confirmation of a rebound has not yet occurred.
Note: Stock market investment carries risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and is not a trading recommendation.
