This week, NEPSE posted gains across all five trading sessions. The index closed at 2,982.64 points on Friday, up from 2,870.63 points the previous week—an increase of over 112 points. In the previous week, the index had jumped by 139 points.
Trading volume also surged significantly. A total of NPR 95.94 billion worth of shares were traded this week, compared to NPR 59.63 billion last week. This rise in both index and transaction volume pushed market capitalization from NPR 47.83 trillion to NPR 49.77 trillion—an increase of NPR 194 billion in investor wealth.
Technical Outlook: Is 3,400 Within Reach?
From a technical perspective, NEPSE broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, which had indicated bullish potential. Analysts project the index could reach 3,400 points based on Elliott Wave Theory. Currently, the market is likely in the third wave, which often shows strong upward momentum. However, a short-term correction (wave 4) could bring the index back near 2,900 points before a fifth wave surge possibly takes it above 3,400.
Moving Averages Show Long-Term Bullish Signal
Technical indicators such as moving averages also support a bullish trend. A golden crossover was observed when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day average—an indicator typically linked to sustained upward momentum in the long term.
Pivot Points: Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance Levels:
- R3: 3,079
- R2: 2,982
- R1: 2,924
- Pivot Point: 2,824
- Support Levels:
- S1: 2,770
- S2: 2,669
- S3: 2,615
These levels suggest 2,950 points may act as strong support if the market corrects next week. A drop below this level could prompt a temporary bearish correction, but the broader trend remains bullish.
Candlestick & Sector Insights
This week ended with bullish candlestick formations on the weekly chart. On the daily chart, however, two side-by-side candlesticks indicate possible selling pressure. Despite that, technical indicators still reflect a bullish momentum.
All major sectors stayed in the green this week, with hydropower and the “Others” group showing notable strength.
NEPSE has climbed steadily from the 2,600 level over the past month. With the formation of bullish patterns and strong volume, the market is expected to remain in an uptrend, though short-term pullbacks cannot be ruled out. Traders and investors should be alert around the 2,950 support level as any breach could trigger brief corrections. Still, long-term indicators suggest the bullish cycle continues.
Disclaimer: The stock market carries inherent risk. This analysis is not a financial recommendation.
