Tihar has ended, but Nepal’s politics is still full of confusion and tension. It has been about six weeks since the Gen Z movement ended, yet the country hasn’t returned to normal. Several groups have already announced new protests after the festival, raising fears of fresh unrest.
The government has announced elections for Falgun 21, but the environment for fair voting hasn’t been created yet. Talks between the government, political parties, and other groups are going nowhere.
After the Gen Z movement, the main opposition parties CPN-UML and Nepali Congress are not confident about the polls. UML leaders have even demanded that Parliament be restored instead of going to elections, and they plan to push this agenda after Tihar.
At the same time, royalist groups and businessman Durga Prasai’s supporters have also warned they will launch street protests soon.
If all these groups hit the streets, Nepal could face new violence, property damage, and even casualties. Knowing this, the government has extended the ban on protests and rallies inside Kathmandu Valley. But if parties break the ban, how will the government respond? And what if it fails to control the unrest? No one seems sure.
The UML, Nepali Congress, and Gen Z factions remain deeply divided. They are unwilling to recognize each other’s political space. Instead of solving differences through dialogue, they are trying to block one another.
Unless these groups agree to compete politically, not through confrontation, the country is likely to stay unstable.
Rather than calming the situation, some senior leaders are worsening it. Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and UML Chair K.P. Oli have been giving fiery speeches.
Oli accuses Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s government of targeting him and warns that arresting him would have “serious consequences.” Meanwhile, both Karki and Aryal are also making sharp remarks against Oli, keeping tensions alive.
Political conflict has now reached the courts. Many cases have been filed at the Supreme Court some accusing the government of suppressing the Gen Z protests, others linking leaders to corruption.
Analysts say many of these cases are politically motivated. Even when verdicts come, the losing sides are unlikely to accept them, which could push the country further into political chaos.
If different groups go ahead with their planned protests, the election environment will suffer even more. Prime Minister Karki recently said that if elections fail, Parliament may have to be restored.
But if the Supreme Court does restore Parliament, Gen Z groups are unlikely to accept it. And if the government forces elections instead, the protests could stop them from happening. For now, Nepal’s political future remains uncertain.
