JP Morgan analysts predict that the average gold price could reach $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026. The forecast is based on expectations of strong investor demand and central bank purchases, which are projected to total around 566 tons per quarter in 2026.
Why gold is gaining
Natasha Kanev, head of global commodities strategy at JP Morgan, says gold is the bank’s top investment this year. She believes prices could rise further as the US Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates.
Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy, adds that several factors are supporting gold’s price, including:
- Interest rate cuts by the Fed
- Inflation concerns
- Market worries about Fed independence
- A general hedge against currency depreciation
JP Morgan emphasizes that this rise isn’t about de-dollarization. Instead, it reflects a slow shift by foreign holders of US assets into gold as a way to diversify away from the dollar.
After rapid price increases in August, the market is now stabilizing. Kanev notes that if investors feel hesitant after sudden price jumps, it’s normal. “There are many buyers and very few sellers,” she says.
JP Morgan maintains a long-term target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028, urging investors to take a multi-year view.
Gold has already hit record highs this year, reaching $4,381.21 recently. This marks a 57% increase compared to last year, the strongest annual performance since 1979.
