Every year in Shrawan, something big happens in Nepal’s stock market. It’s not just the beginning of a new fiscal year—it’s the time when Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) releases its Monetary Policy. This policy shapes the country’s money flow, interest rates, and lending environment. And for NEPSE, this announcement often sparks major ups and downs.
If the policy feels friendly to businesses—like lower interest rates or easier loans—investors get hopeful. But if it hints at higher rates or tighter money, the mood quickly shifts to fear. That’s why Shrawan often feels like a rollercoaster ride for stock investors, especially in banking, insurance, and hydropower.
NEPSE doesn’t wait. It reacts quickly—either by jumping up or falling back. This policy isn’t just paperwork; it’s a signal. A soft policy brings optimism and rising prices. A tough one cools everything down.
Let’s look at history. In 2075/76, NEPSE hardly moved. In 2076/77, it dropped nearly 3%. The next year, it stayed flat again. Then came 2078/79—a strong year with nearly 10% growth. The market was hopeful. But after that, it slowed down again with a dip of around 3% in 2080/81. And just recently, in 2081/82, NEPSE jumped by an impressive 29.87%, driven by better liquidity and investor confidence.
Out of the last seven years, NEPSE went up in only three. Still, the average return in Shrawan stands at +4.97%. When the market rises, it rises big—often enough to cover the fall of other years. That’s why investors keep watching.
For traders, Shrawan is not the month to stay quiet. What NRB says now can decide your gains or losses. And for the central bank, the stock market is a mirror—it reflects how clearly their message was received.
