After months of uncertainty, fear, and political tension, Nepal’s stock market seems ready for a fresh start. Many investors are still cautious, but the market’s background story tells something different all signals point toward an upcoming upward trend.
For the first time since 2020, almost every market indicator hints that a “bull run” could be forming. Interest rates are at record lows, policy reforms are in motion, and liquidity is expected to rise after the festive season. The foundation is already set. Now, it’s just about timing.
Money flowing back after festivals
During major festivals like Dashain, Tihar, and Chhath, many traders usually pull out money from the market for short-term spending or business. This year was no different. But now that the celebrations are over, cash is slowly returning. As this flow increases, buying pressure will rise, boosting investor confidence and possibly pushing the market upward.
Low interest rates: a golden opportunity
Stock markets and bank interest rates always move in opposite directions. When interest rates fall, investors look for better returns in stocks. Currently, bank rates have dropped to historic lows, and restrictions on share-backed loans have been relaxed. Big investors can now borrow cheaply and re-enter the market. This cheap credit could be the main fuel behind NEPSE’s next rally.
Dividend season sparks hope
The dividend season is here, and many strong companies are announcing attractive payouts. For investors, this is a golden window to buy quality stocks and secure upcoming dividends. As dividends attract more buyers, demand rises, helping lift the overall market sentiment.
Reforms bring a wave of optimism
The government and regulators have been working on key reforms long demanded by investors. The new finance minister’s team has already initiated several capital market improvements. Despite temporary disruptions from employee protests, these changes are expected to speed up soon. The central bank has also addressed key monetary concerns. Altogether, these policy moves are injecting new energy into the market.
Weak economy may push money into stocks
Other business sectors are struggling due to instability and lack of investor protection. Big investors are hesitant to pour money into industries or tourism at the moment. This slowdown could actually benefit the stock market, as short-term investors seek safer, quicker returns. Until other sectors stabilize, NEPSE could attract this idle capital.
Limited new share supply helps market balance
In the past months, the secondary market faced heavy pressure due to too many IPOs and right shares. But now, because of administrative delays and board strikes, new share issues have nearly stopped. This has reduced the oversupply of shares, which can help existing prices recover faster.
Decline in gold and silver prices could shift money to NEPSE
Internationally, gold prices have started to fall after peaking near $4,400 per ounce. The easing trade tensions between the US and China have also reduced global demand for gold. Many investors who earlier moved their funds from shares to gold might now return to the stock market, adding new momentum to NEPSE.
Market needs one last push: confidence
The technical and economic conditions are already set. What’s missing is investor confidence. If faith returns, the market could move sharply upward. Analysts expect a clear bullish trend by the second week of November.
2025 could mark the beginning of a new chapter for Nepal’s capital market. The question is no longer “if” the market will rise it’s simply “when.”
